The Seventh International Conference on Asteroids, Comets and Meteors
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
July 26-30, 1999
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Press Conference Schedule
At these sessions, researchers will meet with the press to describe and explain the work described in the technical papers they are presenting at the conference. Scroll down for links to abstracts of the papers to be discussed
Monday
July 26
10-11 a.m.
Room 109
Ives Hall
| Tuesday
July 27
10 a.m. - 12 noon
Room 109
Ives Hall
| Wednesday
July 28
10-11 a.m.
Room 109
Ives Hall
| Thursday,
July 29
10-11 a.m.
Room 109
Ives Hall
| Friday,
July 30
10-11 a.m.
Room 109
Ives Hall
|
Radar Astronomy
Donald Campbell, Cornell University (moderator)
Steven Ostro, JPL/Caltech
David Meisel, SUNY-Geneseo
| Near-Earth Objects
Paul Chodas, JPL (moderator)
David Rabinowitz, JPL
Andrea Milani, University of Pisa
Alan Harris, JPL
Richard Binzel, MIT
| Future Missions
Donald Yeomans, JPL (moderator)
Benton Clark, Lockheed Martin
Paul Weissman, JPL
Robert Farquhar, Johns Hopkins University/APL
Fred Whipple, Harvard University/CFA
Mike A'Hearn, University of Maryland
| Space Dust
Joseph Burns, Cornell University (moderator)
Eberhard Gruen, Max Planck Institute
Phillipe Lamy, Lab d'Astronomie Spatiale
William Reach, Caltech
Peter Jenniskens, SETI Institute
| Asteroid Moons and Spins
William Bottke, Cornell University (moderator)
William Merline, Southwest Research Institute
Petr Pravec, Ondrejov Astronomy Institute
Alan Harris, JPL
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| 12:30-1:30 p.m.
Room 109
Ives Hall
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| Analyzing Asteroids and Distant Comets
Shelte Bus, MIT (moderator)
Antonietta Barucci, Observatory of Paris-DESPA
Stephen Tegler, Northern Arizona University
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Abstracts of papers discussed in press conferences
Monday, July 26: Radar Astronomy
Asteroid Radar Astronomy: Steven J. Ostro, JPLOstro has provided some background materila here
Plans for VLBA-Radar Imaging of Near-Earth Objects: G. Black (NRAO), D. Campbell (Cornell), B.Butler (NRAO), S. Ostro (JPL)
Radar Observations of Comets; John K. Harmon (Arecibo), D.Campbell (Cornell), S.Ostro (JPL), M.Nolan (Arecibo)
Bistatic Radar Imaging of 6489 Golevka in June 1999: Nolan (NAIC), Margot (NAIC)
Mainbelt asteroids: Results of Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Observations of 37 Objects During 1980-1995: C.Magri et al
Tuesday, July 27: Near-Earth Objects
In two recent blockbuster movies, we have seen asteroids and comets
threatening to collide with the Earth, only to be destroyed at the
last minute by astronaut heroics. In real life, the hazards due to
collisions with comets or asteroids are being considered more and more
seriously. It has been estimated that only 15 to 20 percent of the
Near Earth Objects larger than 1 kilometer have been detected to date.
Several telescopic discovery programs are actively searching for these
large near-Earth objects and the discovery rate is increasing.
However, it may be at least 10 years before we find 90 percent of the total
population. A new analysis by Dave Rabinowitz has shown that there may
be only half as many large hazardous objects as previously estimated. Al
Harris will present new evidence to refute a controversial theory put forth
several years ago, that the Earth is continually bombarded by a population
of house-sized comets. Andrea Milani and Paul Chodas will discuss their
independent efforts to predict close Earth approaches and impact
probabilities farther into the future than has been previously possible.
Daily prediction of Earth close-approach uncertainties for potentially hazardous asteroids: Chodas et al
The number of kilometer-sized NEAs: New results from NEAT: Rabinowitz et al
Tuesday, July 27: Analyzing Asteroids and Distant Comets
In studying the solar system, one of the most fundamental questions that
can be asked is "What materials make up the different objects we see?"
If we know what any particular planetary body is made of, we can place
important constraints on how that body was initially formed, and on the
processes that might have changed that object over the age of the solar
system. The best way to determine the compositions of the various bodies
in the solar system is to collect pieces that can be accurately analyzed
in a laboratory. When we don't have these "hand samples" that can be closely
examined, we have to rely on other techniques of remote sensing, in
particular, spectroscopy, to help us estimate the compositions of the
various bodies. Spectroscopy is the technique of breaking light into its
component colors, or spectrum, and measuring the amount of each color
that is present. Since different materials reflect (or emit) light in
different ways, the spectrum of an object is like a fingerprint of the
material making up that object. Spectroscopy is particularly important
in the study of the small bodies in the solar system (the asteroids and
comets) where their numbers are so great that we will never be able to
visit them all (by spacecraft) or collect pieces of every one. Spectroscopy
helps to reveal how these various small bodies are similar or different
from one another, and helps to reveal the much larger picture of what
role these asteroids and comets may have played in the evolution of the
solar system.
In this press conference, results will be presented for objects in
different regions of the solar system. First, new results will be discussed
from a spectroscopic survey of asteroids in the main belt (located between
the orbits of Mars and Jupiter), where it is found that collisions between
the asteroids have played a major role in their evolution. Then, our
attention will turn to the outermost observable part of the solar system,
to the recently discovered Kuiper Belt (and Centaur) Objects. These
objects are thought to be leftover fossils from the early formation of the
solar system, and may thus contain some of the most pristine materials
that we can study. Due to their small sizes and great distance from the Sun,
however, these objects also are the most challenging to observe. Measurements of
their colors reveal significant variations between the individual bodies,
suggesting that processes, which as yet are not understood, are at work in
this coldest region of the solar system.
Compositional structure of asteroid families: S.J.Bus
Physical and composition characteristics of centaurs and EKOs: Barucci
Light curves of centaurs and Kuiper Belt objects: Romanishin, Tegler
Wednesday, July 28: Future Missions
Because they are the remnants of the solar system formation process,
the primitive comets and asteroids offer clues to the materials and
conditions under which the planets formed some 4.6 billion years ago.
Throughout Earth's history, the impact of comets and asteroids have
delivered to the early Earth the carbon-based molecules and water
that were necessary for the formation of life. Subsequent collisions
may have punctuated the evolution of life itself, allowing only the
most adaptable species to evolve further. Ironically, those objects
that can get closest to the Earth are also the ones that can be reached
most easily to exploit their raw materials. In the next century when
we begin to colonize the inner solar system, asteroids could provide
the metals necessary for space structures and comets could supply the
water that is necessary to sustain life and (after being separated into
oxygen and hydrogen) provide the fuel to power interplanetary spacecraft.
Spacecraft missions to comets and asteroids are necessary to study the
origins of the solar system and to measure their strengths and densities
in case we need to deflect one from an Earth impacting trajectory.
Missions are also necessary to assay these objects to determine which
among them are richest in raw materials.
The current era is truly the golden age of comet and asteroid exploration.
Within the next dozen years, there will be detailed investigations of
13 different comets and asteroids by at least 7 spacecraft. Within this
interval, spacecraft flybys will characterize a diverse group of comets
and asteroids, including objects of widely different compositions, ages
and origins. Although it was designed primarily to test new technologies
in space, the New Millennium Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission will fly closely
past, and image, asteroid 1992 KD on July 29, 1999. If the resources are
allocated, DS1 will then be targeted to fly closely past asteroid
Wilson-Harrington and comet Borrelly in January and September of 2001.
Beginning on Valentines day of 2000, the NEAR spacecraft will spend nearly
a year in close orbit about the asteroid Eros subjecting it to detailed
mapping and chemical analysis. In a Japanese and American cooperative
effort, the MUSES-C mission will land upon asteroid 1989 ML in October
2003 and deploy a book-sized rover to study the asteroid's surface and
chemical composition. The Muses-C spacecraft will also collect surface
samples and bring them back to Earth in June 2006 for study in Earth-based
laboratories. A few months earlier in January 2006, the Stardust mission
will return a sample of cometary dust to Earth for analysis. The Stardust
mission will fly past comet Wild 2 in January 2004, collect dust particles
and provide images of the comet's nucleus. Between November 2003 and August
2008, the CONTOUR mission will fly past and scrutinize three widely diverse
comets (Encke, Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, d'Arrest) and if a bright new comet
is discovered in time, CONTOUR could be diverted to intercept it. The
recently selected Deep Impact Discovery mission will release a 500 kg
impactor that will strike comet Tempel 1 on the fourth of July 2005 and
then study the resulting crater and ejecta as the spacecraft flies by.
This will be the first experiment to study the subsurface cometary regions.
After flying by two asteroids en route, the European Space Agency's Rosetta
spacecraft will rendezvous and land upon comet Wirtanen in November 2011.
The nucleus of this comet will then be subjected to a wide variety of
scientific studies to determine its nature and composition.
Comet and Asteroid Missions in NASA's New Millenium Program: Weissman, JPL
CONTOUR: A discovery mission to study the nature and diversity of comet nuclei: Veverka et al
The International Rosetta Mission: Gerhard Schwehm
Thursday, July 29: Space Dust
The "Space Dust" press session will focus on spacecraft
observations of small interplanetary grains, which are usually particles
ejected by comets.
Comets spend most of their lives much beyond the planetary realm,
only becoming visible when they reach the inner solar system where their
ices sublime, carrying gas and dust outward. Yet, more than fifty comets
have been discovered sweeping close to the Sun. These observations were
made in the last few years by the SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)
spacecraft which shielded its telescopes from the Sun's glare to see the
region a few solar radii wide. Philippe Lamy (Laboratoire d'Astronomie
Spatiale, Marseille; Cornell Ph.D. '75) will discuss the properties of
these comets, the majority of which are only a few hundred meters across
and display little cometary activity.
Traditionally, comets are thought to exhibit at most two tails, a
graceful one made of fine dust and a knotted ionized version. Bill Reach
(IPAC/Caltech) will describe another type of tail for comet 2P/Encke,
recently observed by the Infrared Space Observatory at infrared (long)
wavelengths that are sensitive to much larger particles. These images show
that pebble-sized particles, invisible to human eyes from the ground,
stream away from the comet's nucleus in a long slender "trail", containing
hundreds of times more mass than Encke's previously known tail.
Most meteors, popularly called "shooting stars", are pea-sized bits
of comets that slam into the Earth's upper atmosphere at 20-60 km/sec
(45,000-135,000 mph). Well known annual meteor showers occur when Earth
passes through a comet's path; they can be spectacular if the source comet
is nearby. For example, the Leonid shower, which is associated with comet
Tempel-Tuttle (orbital period 33.5 years) and happens each November 12,
peaked at 9000 meteors in 15 minutes in 1833; 1966 was also a very good
year. Peter Jenniskens (NASA/Ames), the leader of a multinational airborne
campaign, will discuss the mixed results from last fall's apparition, which
some predicted to be very strong, and preparations for this fall's
observations.
Very surprisingly, nearly one-third of the largest grains in space
are interlopers from the galaxy, and not native to our solar system,
according to impacts detected three spacecraft (Galileo, Ulysses and
Hiten). Eberhard Grun (Max Planck Institute-Heidelberg), the chief
scientist of these instruments, will discuss the identification of these
grains and their nature. He will also describe future missions that might
capture these pieces of other stars for return to Earth.
Joe Burns
Session Chair
Galactic Dust Measurements near Earth: Gruen et al
The properties of the SOHO sun-grazing comets: P.L.Lamy et al
Results from the Leonid Multi-instrument aircraft campaign: P.Jenniskens et al
Comet Encke's Dust Trail: Reach et al
Friday, July 30: Asteroid Moons and Spins
Until recently, most planetary scientists considered asteroids to be little more than beat-up rocks in space, with solid interiors and lunar-like surfaces. It is difficult to prove or disprove this hypothesis, since remote sensing techniques can, at best, only probe the top layers of an asteroid's surface. Still, using data taken from spacecraft flybys, ground-based observations, and computer modeling, a new view of has evolved which suggests that many large asteroids are "rubble-piles", collections of large and small components held together not by physical strength but by the gravitational attraction of the components themselves. P. Pravec's results help provide support for this hypothesis. For example, Pravec has recently made an extensive study of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) rotation rates using his own observations and data provided by astronomers from all over the world. At ACM'99, Pravec will show that only two sub-100 meter bodies (1996 KY26 and 1995 HM) are spinning so fast that they have to be solid objects -- weakly-bound rubble-piles fly apart if you spin them too fast. These bodies are small enough that they do not present a contradiction to the rubble-pile hypothesis; instead, they provide the "missing link" astronomers have been looking for, filling the gap between between km-sized asteroids, which cannot spin overly fast, and meter-sized meteorites, which are known to be solid. Computer modeling suggests the transistion size where solid objects turn into rubble piles is roughly a few hundred meters in diameter. More support for the rubble-pile hypothesis comes from a surprising place, namely Pravec's report that many near-Earth objects have small moons. If true, these moons are most likely to be a by-product of close encounters between rubble-pile asteroids and planets; when a rubble-pile asteroid passes too close to a planet like Earth, tidal forces can pull it apart, leaving some of the fragments to orbit one another. This scenario, however, does not explain all asteroid moons. Binary asteroids in the main belt, such as (243) Ida and its moon Dactyl, or the new moon reported around (45) Eugenia by W. J. Merline, cannot be produced by tidal forces, since these bodies can never approach a planet. It is believed these binaries may be by-products of asteroid-asteroid collisions, though the details are still unclear. Regardless, these new results show us that asteroids are very different than our preconceived notions, and that further work is needed to understand the true nature of these interesting bodies.
Discovery of a Satellite of (45) Eugenia: Merline et al
Fast Rotating Asteroids: Petr Pravec
The complete list of abstracts for the conference will be found here. Abstracts relating to the press conference topics are duplicated below.
Asteroid Radar Astronomy
Steven J. Ostro (JPL/Caltech)
Radar is a powerful source of information about asteroid physical properties and orbits. Measurements of the distribution of echo power in time delay (range) and Doppler frequency (radial velocity) constitute two-dimensional images that can provide spatial resolution as fine as 10 meters if the echoes are strong enough. With adequate orientational coverage, such images can be used to construct geologically detailed 3-D models, to define the rotation state precisely, and to constrain the object's internal density distribution. Radar signatures have been measured for 37 main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and 50 near- Earth asteroids (NEAs). The large radar albedos of 1986DA, Kleopatra, and Psyche suggest metallic compositions. C and S MBAs have radar albedos (and hence near-surface bulk densities) that are similar to each other but higher than those of BGFP MBAs. The near- surface bulk density of Pallas is about 35% greater than that of Ceres; both objects have surface slopes larger than 20 deg. Radar spectra for five large MBAs show evidence for prominent topography. Measurements of circular polarization ratio (SC/OC) indicate that the degree of small-scale roughness on MBAs is independent of taxonomic class and ranges from negligible to moderate (SC/OC from 0.0 to 0.3). NEA values of SC/OC average 0.3 and reach 1.0 for a few objects (Adonis, 1992QN, Eger). High resolution images of Toutatis reveal a geologically complex, heavily cratered object in a slow, non-principal-axis spin state. Toutatis' internal density distribution appears to be uniform; the surface's centimeter-to-decimeter-scale roughness also is uniform and is consistent with at least 1/3 of the area being covered by small rocks. Geographos is more than twice as elongated as any other NEA that has been spatially resolved. Castalia and Bacchus are bifurcated, 1982 TA has a triangular pole-on shape, and Golevka is the most angular object imaged so far. 1998 ML14 has protrusions that suggest a rock-pile configuration. The existence of accurate physical models for small NEAs has permitted investigations that previously were impossible or relied on simplistic shapes, including modeling of close orbits (with application to the dynamics of robotic or piloted spacecraft, natural satellites, and non-escaping impact ejecta) and simulations able to explore effects of collisions on rotation state, surface topography, regolith distribution, and internal structure. (For references, see http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/index.html.)
Plans for VLBA-Radar Imaging of Near-Earth Objects
G. Black (NRAO), D. Campbell (Cornell), B. Butler (NRAO), S. Ostro (JPL)
Despite the short distances at which near Earth asteroids and some comets can approach the Earth, their small sizes make it extremely difficult to study fundamental properties such as their shape and rotation pole from the Earth. A powerful tool for measuring such properties is delay-Doppler radar mapping which can probe their surfaces at very high resolution. One of the primary disadvantages of this technique is the inherent ambiguity in the mapping from real space into delay-Doppler coordinates which often limits one's ability to uniquely invert the data into a three-dimensional shape and albedo map. Much work has been done to advance these inversion techniques, but unique reconstruction requires a fair degree of orientational coverage including non-equatorial views and hence fortuitous encounter geometries and target rotation. A different approach is to include synthesized plane-of-sky images of the radar-illuminated object obtained from interferometry techniques in the shape reconstruction.
We have initiated a program to use the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) in conjunction with the Arecibo and JPL/Goldstone radars to observe newly discovered near-Earth objects during their discovery apparitions. The VLBA receiving at 13 cm (Arecibo's transmitted wavelength) will have resolutions of order 100 m at typical close approach distances. This type of observation has not been possible in the past, but can now be done because of recent improvements to the VLBA that allow for near-field observing and narrow bandwidths (124 Hz). Recent attempts to observe two objects, 1988 EG and 1996 FG3, were not successful largely due to transmitter failures. Regardless, they were important tests as solutions were found for several expected and unexpected problems related to observing such swiftly moving (0.5 arcmin/min) near-field targets.
Good targets for a VLBA-radar experiment should be as close as possible to the Earth for maximum signal-to-noise ratio, but also they should not be so large as to be over-resolved. Optimal targets are 0.5-2.0 km in diameter, and approach at distances of 0.02-0.05 AU. These conditions are likely to be met for an object at or very near its closest approach to the Earth, and this should occur no sooner than two weeks after its discovery to allow adequate time to prepare. the observations. In 1997 and 1998 there were 10 and 18 objects respectively which would have been suitable targets for a VLBA-radar experiment. Of these, roughly 30% satisfied the two week lead time constraint. Extrapolation of these discovery rates predicts that 2 or 3 suitable targets should be discovered during the second half of 1999 and with enough lead time to schedule a VLBA-radar observation, and in the future this number should increase with discovery rate.
Radar Observations of Comets
John K. Harmon (Arecibo Observatory), Donald B. Campbell (Cornell University), Steven J. Ostro (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Michael C. Nolan (Arecibo Observatory)
Seven comets have been detected by Earth-based radars during the period 1980--1998. These are: P/Encke, P/Grigg-Skjellerup, IRAS-Araki-Alcock (C/1983 H1), Sugano-Saigusa-Fujikawa (C/1983 J1), P/Halley, Hyakutake (C/1996 B2), and LINEAR (C/1998 K5). All but Halley gave a detectable echo from the nucleus, while three of the comets (IRAS-Araki-Alcock, Halley, and Hyakutake) also showed a broad-band echo from large (cm-size) grains in the inner coma. Although all observations have been of the CW (continuous-wave) type, which precludes direct size measurement, the radar cross sections are consistent with nucleus diameters averaging a few kilometers and varying over a range of ten. Comparisons with independent size estimates indicate relatively low radar albedos, implying nucleus surface densities of 0.5--1 g/cm^3. The surfaces of comet nuclei appear to be as rough as typical asteroid surfaces, but are considerably less dense. Analysis of coma echoes indicates that some comets emit large grains at ton/second rates which are comparable with their gas and dust production rates. There is also some indirect evidence for grain evaporation or fragmentation within a few hundred to a few thousand kilometers of the nucleus. The highest priority of future radar observations will be to obtain delay-Doppler images of a nucleus, which would give direct size and shape estimates as well as a more reliable albedo. Delay-Doppler or interferometric imaging of the coma echo would also help to better characterize the grain halo. Ten short-period comets are potentially detectable with radar during the next two decades, the next two opportunities being Encke in November 2003 and Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 in May 2006. However, it is also possible that the best radar opportunities may well come from comets as yet undiscovered.
Bistatic Radar Imaging of 6489 Golevka in June 1999
Michael C. Nolan (NAIC), Jean-Luc Margot (NAIC)
Asteroid 6489 Golevka passes 0.05 AU from the Earth on 1999 June 3, and will be imaged with the Arecibo Observatory Planetary Radar system over a two-week interval centered on that date using the DSN Madrid Tracking Station 70 m antenna as an additional receiving station. The baseline between these two stations is approximately parallel to the (known) rotation axis of Golevka, and will allow interferometric resolution along that axis, which is otherwise unresolved by radar observations. This technique has been successfully used by Zisk (1972) and more recently by Margot (1999) for measurement of Lunar topography, and has also been applied to Venus. The application of the method to asteroids is discussed by Margot and Nolan (1999).
Extension of this method to asteroids with unknown pole orientations is possible, but would require an additional receiving station to be sure that the projection of the rotation axis on the interferometric baselines gives useful information. The known pole thus greatly simplifies the logistics of this initial investigation.
We will present preliminary results from these observations.
Margot, J.-L., "Lunar topography from Earth-based radar interferometric mapping". Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell University (1999).
Margot, J.-L. and M. C. Nolan, "Radar Interferometric Imaging of 6489 Golevka", This meeting (1999).
Zisk, S. H., "A new, Earth-based radar technique for the measurement of Lunar topography". In "The Moon", 4:296--306 (1972).
Mainbelt Asteroids: Results of Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Observations of 37 Objects During 1980-1995
C. Magri (University of Maine at Farmington), S. J. Ostro (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), K. D. Rosema (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), M. L. Thomas (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), D. L. Mitchell (University of California at Berkeley), D. B. Campbell (Cornell University), J. F. Chandler (Center for Astrophysics), I. I. Shapiro (Center for Astrophysics), J. D. Giorgini (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), D. K. Yeomans (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)
Thirty-seven mainbelt asteroids (MBAs) were detected in Arecibo and Goldstone radar experiments between 1980 and 1995. We discuss the results of statistical analyses of disc-integrated properties (radar albedo and circular polarization ratio) for this sample. M asteroids seem to have higher radar albedos and a wider range of albedos than do asteroids from the other taxonomic classes; there is no evidence that C and S MBAs have different albedo distributions; and there is some suggestion that primitive B, F, G, and P asteroids are not as radar-bright as C and S objects. There is no statistically significant evidence that different taxonomic classes have different polarization ratio distributions, despite suggestions to the contrary based on visual inspection of these distributions. The similarity between the C and S albedo distributions implies similar near-surface regolith bulk densities. The hypothesis of ordinary chondritic composition for the S-class asteroids is reasonably consistent with the radar data, provided that these asteroids have typical lunar porosities. Nevertheless, it is possible that some of these targets have high-porosity regoliths of stony-iron composition. Our M-class sample presumably contains both metallic objects (such as 216 Kleopatra and, probably, 16 Psyche) and less metallic objects. We also discuss new MBA radar experiments being carried out with the upgraded Arecibo telescope.
Daily Prediction of Earth Close-Approach Uncertainties for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
Paul W. Chodas (JPL/Caltech), Alan B. Chamberlin (JPL/Caltech)
In order to evaluate the threat posed by the known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs), accurate orbits must be determined for these objects, and future close approaches must be predicted along with their associated uncertainties. Accurate orbits and close-approach predictions are also important in the planning of optical and ground-based radar observations, as well as for the design of spacecraft missions to these bodies.
We have implemented a semi-automated process to maintain an up-to-date database of PHA orbit solutions and close-approach predictions. The process runs on a daily basis because it is essential to use the latest set of observations for each object, particularly when new data extend the data arc. Minor Planet Center electronic circulars are checked daily for new PHAs and for new PHA astrometry. If a new PHA is detected, an initial orbit estimate is obtained. If new astrometry is found (or new radar astrometry is available), those data are merged into the observational dataset for the object, and a new orbit is calculated using our orbit determination program. The motion of the PHA is then integrated 100 years into the future, and close approaches to all perturbing bodies are identified.
Uncertainties at each close approach are estimated by linearly mapping orbital uncertainties at epoch to position uncertainties at close approach and then projecting these into the impact plane (the plane perpendicular to the incoming asymptote). The dimensions of the impact-plane uncertainty ellipse and its position relative to the target body are calculated, as well as the time uncertainty of close approach and an estimate of the probability of impact. In addition, fully non-linear methods, including Monte Carlo simulations based on the orbit solution covariance, are used for PHAs which make particularly close approaches to the Earth.
From the resulting database, a subset of Earth close approaches are selected for inclusion in our PHA close-approach table which is publicly available on our Near-Earth Object web site at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/. Only Earth close approaches with nominal miss distances less than 0.2 AU and with reasonably small uncertainties are extracted for the published table. Without such a restriction on uncertainties, many essentially unpredictable close approaches could appear in the table, only to disappear later, when the data arc is extended.
The Number of Kilometer-sized NEAs: New Results from NEAT
D. Rabinowitz (JPL), E. Helin (JPL), K. Lawrence (JPL), S. Pravdo (JPL)
From Dec. 1995 to Aug. 1998, the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking Program (NEAT) at JPL detected 49 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). More than half were in the absolute magnitude range, H = 13 - 18 (diameter d ~ 1 to 10 km). Some were previously known, but in all cases the detections were incidental. From these and other data we recently determined our efficiency of detection as a function of visual magnitude, V, and rate of motion [1]. Here, we use a Monte-Carlo simulation that accurately models our known detection efficiencies to determine the relation between the cumulative H distribution of our biased detections and that of the entire NEA population, N(H). Inverting the model yields N(H). We also determine the cumulative diameter distribution given an assumed albedo distribution.
Our new result is consistent with the distribution determined earlier from Spacewatch observations [2], with N(H) ~ e**0.9H for H = 15 to 22 (d ~ 0.15 to 5 km). We confirm that N(H) flattens near H = 23 (d ~ 0.1 km) and steepens at smaller sizes. We obtain N = 750 +/- 250 for H < 18, where most of the error derives from our uncertain knowledge of the unbiased orbit distribution for the NEAs. Assuming half the NEAs are C-types, and half S-types, then there are also 750 +/- 250 with d > 1 km. This is lower by a factor of ~2 than previous estimates [3], but not inconsistent given the previous uncertainties.
Assuming further that NEAs are discovered at a rate proportional to the undiscovered number, then increasing current detection rates to 15 NEAs per month with H < 19 would yield 90% completion in 10 years for those larger than 1 km. In 1998, we were half way there, with 91 such discoveries worldwide. Given NEAT's discovery rate of 0.50 NEAs with H < 19 per 1000 sq. deg. at limit V = 19.1, it follows that an all-sky survey at this limit would achieve 90% completion in 15 years. Scaling from the known performance of Spacewatch [2] at limit V = 20.5, an all-sky search at limit V=19.7 would then be required to reach the 10-year completion goal.
[1] S. Pravdo et al. 1999. Astron. J., in press; [2] D. Rabinowitz. 1994. Icarus 111, 364; [3] D. Rabinowitz, E. Bowell, E. Shoemaker, & K. Muinonen. 1994. In Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, ed. T. Gehrels, (U. Arizona Press, Tucson), 285-312.
Compositional structure of asteroid families
S. J. Bus (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Advances in CCD spectroscopy have greatly enhanced our ability to measure the spectral reflectance properties of small
asteroids. In particular, the spectral observations of small asteroids belonging to dynamical families have provided strong
evidence that many of these families represent true genetic associations. Of the families studied to date, most have members that appear spectrally similar, suggesting that their respective parent bodies were relatively homogeneous. By comparison, there has
been little evidence found for families originating from the break-up of differentiated parent bodies, where different spectral
types are recognized among the family members that can be related to different mineralogical layers within the parent. In this talk, I will review the recent spectroscopic results for several of the larger asteroid families. I will also discuss
recent results from the SMASSII survey, in which the focus was to test the reality of many smaller asteroid families located
between 2.7 and 2.8 AU. The SMASSII results show that essentially all of the previously identified families in this region of the
belt are real, though the actual boundaries compared with those defined by dynamical studies alone often differ. We also find
that, by including spectral information with orbital parameters in the search for asteroid families, that more dispersed, and
potentially older associations can be identified. A total of nineteen families have been identified between 2.7 and 2.8 AU, based
on the SMASSII results. The importance of observing the local background population, as well as the proposed family
members, will be stressed.
PHYSICAL AND COMPOSITION CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTAURS AND EKOs
M. A. Barucci (Observatoire de Paris, France)
More than 120 Edgeworth-Kuiper Objects (EKOs) have been discovered so far at the frontier of our solar system. On the basis of discovery statistics, more than 100,000 bodies (with diameter larger than 100 km) are estimated to orbit in a radial zone outward the orbit of Neptune (Jewitt, 1999, ESO MBOSS-98 Proc.). These objects, located so far from the Sun, are expected to be fossils of the protoplanetary disk and they contain the least thermal perturbed material. Long-term evolution integrations show that they are the source of Centaurs, objects with orbits located between those of Jupiter and Neptune.
Very little is known about the physical and compositional properties of Centaurs and EKOs. These two classes of objects behave in a very similar way as far as their colors are concerned and this similarity supports the hypothesis that Centaurs are EKOs injected into giant-planet crossing orbits. In fact, visual and near-infrared broad-band photometry indicates that in both classes there are objects having colors varying from neutral to strongly reddened. Only few have been observed by near-infrared spectroscopy and their spectra seem very different from each other: diversity which indicates a complex collisional evolution of these objects.
The available physical and compositional knowledge of these two populations will be summarized and discussed.
Light Curves of Centaurs and Kuiper Belt Objects
W. Romanishin (University of Oklahoma), S.C. Tegler (Northern Arizona University)
Very little is known about the physical properties of Kuiper belt objects (KBOs). A KBO with a diameter of 300 km at a distance of 30 AU subtends an angle of only 0.014 arc seconds. Therefore, it is possible to investigate their surface markings, shapes, and rotational properties only through their brightness variations (light curves). Here we report on a survey of KBO light curves using optical photometry obtained with a very high quantum efficiency CCD camera on the Steward Observatory 2.3-m telescope on Kitt Peak, Arizona. We find light curves occur in the intrinsically faintest KBOs (Romanishin & Tegler 1999, Nature, 398, 129). An analysis of the light curve periods rules out eclipsing binaries and light and dark surface markings as mechanisms responsible for the light curves. Hence, the light curves are due to the rotation of objects with irregular shapes. Irregular shapes may be limited to the smallest KBOs because in their central region the material strength exceeds the weight exerted by the overlying material. Alternatively, the KBOs in our survey may have essentially the same size, but the intrinsically faintest objects may be composed of a stronger and darker material.
Comet and Asteroid Missions in NASA's New Millennium Program
Paul R. Weissman (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)
NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP) is designed to develop, test, and flight validate new, advanced technologies for planetary and Earth exploration missions, using a series of low cost spacecraft. Two of NMP's current missions include encounters with comets and asteroids. The Deep Space 1 mission was launched on October 24, 1998 and will fly by asteroid 1992 KD on July 29, 1999, and possibly Comet Wilson-Harrington and/or Comet Borrelly in 2001. The Space Technology 4/Champollion mission will be launched in April, 2003 and will rendezvous with, orbit, and land on periodic Comet Tempel 1 in 2006. ST-4/Champollion is a joint project with CNES, the French space agency.
The DS-1 mission is going well since launch and has already validated several major technologies, including solar electric propulsion (SEP), solar concentrator arrays, a small deep space transponder, and autonomous navigation. The spacecraft carries two scientific instruments: MICAS, a combined visible camera and UV and IR spectrometers, and PEPE, an ion and electron spectrometer. Testing of the science instruments is ongoing. Following the asteroid encounter in July, 1999, DS-1 will go on to encounters with one or both comets if NASA approves funding for an extended mission.
The ST-4/Champollion mission will use an advanced, multi-engine SEP system to effect a rendezvous with Comet P/Tempel 1 in February, 2006, after a flight time of 2.8 years. After orbiting the comet for several months in order to map its surface and determine its gravity field, ST-4/Champollion will descend to the comet's surface and will anchor itself with a 3-meter long harpoon. Scientific experiments include narrow and wide angle cameras for orbital mapping, panoramic and near-field cameras for landing site mapping, a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer, a combined microscope and infrared spectrometer, and physical properties probes. Cometary samples will be obtained from depths up to 1.4 meters. The spacecraft is solar powered with rechargeable batteries, thus allowing a long duration mission on the nucleus surface. At the time of this writing, the ST-4/Champollion spacecraft was undergoing a major redesign to fit within NASA cost constraints, and approval of the mission is pending.
CONTOUR: A Discovery Mission to Study the Nature and Diversity of Comet Nuclei
J.Veverka, J.F. Bell III, P. Thomas, S. Squyres (Cornell), A. Cheng, M. Chiu, D. Dunham, R. Farquhar, S. Murchie, E. Reynolds, J. Warren, (APL), M.J.S. Belton (KPNO), J. Benkhoff (DLR), R. Brown (STSci), B. Clark (Lockheed-Martin), A. Cochran (U. Texas), P. Feldman (Johns Hopkins U.), A. Friedlander (SAIC), J. Kissel (Max Planck Institut), M. Malin (MSSS), P. Mahaffy, H. Niemann (GSFC), T. Owen (IfA), G. Schwehm (ESTEC), D. Yeomans (JPL).
The International Rosetta Mission
Gerhard Schwehm (European Space Agency)
The International Rosetta Mission is the third Cornerstone in ESA's long term programme Horizons 2000.The prime scientific objective of the mission is to study the origin of comets,the relationship between cometary and interstellar material, and its implications with regard to the origin of the solar system. The spacecraft will carry 12 instruments and a lander.A suite of remote sensing instruments will map and study the comet surface with high resolution covering a wavelength range from the UV to the submillimetre regime. Sophisticated mass spectrometers will analyse the chemical,mineralogical, and isotopic composition of the volatile and refractory components of the comet. An Atomic Force Microscope will provide surface morphology of individual grains with 10nm resolution. The environment will be monitored by a Plasma Package and a dust monitor. Rosetta will be launched in January 2003 by an Ariane 5. It will rendez-vous with 46P/Wirtanen in November 2011, close to its aphelion. It will follow the nucleus on close orbits through perihelion.Early in the close orbit phase the lander will be separated from the orbiter, descend to the surface of the comet and provide information on the chemical and physical properties of a selected area as well as the internal structure of the comet nucleus.On its long journey to the comet,two asteroids, Otawara and Siwa will be studied.
Galactic Dust Measurements Near Earth
Eberhard Gruen (MPI-K), Markus Landgraf (NASA JSC), Mihaly Horanyi (LASP), Jochen Kissel (MPAE), Harald Krger (MPI-K), Ralf Srama (MPI-K), Hakan Svedhem5 (ESA-ESTEC), Peter Withnell (LASP)
Galactic interstellar dust (ISD) is the major ingredient in planetary formation. However, information on this important material has been extremely limited. Recently the Ulysses dust detector has identified and measured interstellar dust outside 1.8 AU from the Sun at ecliptic latitudes above 50 deg. Inside this distance it could not reliably distinguish interstellar from interplanetary dust. From the Hiten satellite in high eccentric orbit about the Earth there are indications that ISD indeed reaches the Earth's orbit. The Stardust mission intents to analyze by an in-situ detector and to collect ISD between 2 and 3 AU from the Sun. Modeling the Ulysses data suggests that up to 30 % of dust flux with masses above 10^-13 g at 1 AU is of interstellar origin. In order to identify the ISD flux levels at 1 AU a mission is proposed that can identify and quantify interstellar dust flux in high-Earth orbit (outside the debris belts) and can provide chemical composition information of galactic dust. A mission scenario is described that allows us by in-situ dust measurements to distinguish interplanetary from interstellar dust and provide important physical and chemical information on ISD. In addition, crucial informat ion is provided for follow-up missions to collect galactic dust in Earth orbit for sample return.
THE PROPERTIES OF THE SOHO SUN-GRAZING COMETS
P.L. Lamy (Laboratoire d'Astronomie Spatiale), A. Llebaria (Laboratoire d'Astronomie Spatiale), D. Biesecker (SMA Corporation), S. Durand (Laboratoire d'Astronomie Spatiale)
During their three years of almost continuous operation, the LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs aboard the SOHO spacecraft have detected over 50 sun-grazing comets . The majority of these comets do not display any activity, at least at the spatial scale of the instruments, and are compatible with bodies having sizes of a few hundred meters. A minority exibits extended tails and the application of synchrone-syndyne analysis allow to characterize the emission of dust and their physical properties. We shall discuss whether the similarities and differences can be reconcilied with the hypothesis of a single parent and infer some of its properties.
Results from the Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign
P. Jenniskens (SETI Institute/NASA Ames Research Center)
In November of 1998, 28 scientists of seven nationalities participated in NASA's first Astrobiology mission, an airborne campaign to study the accretion of extraterrestrial materials in Earth's atmosphere during the unusual Leonid meteor shower from a location near Okinawa, Japan. This Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign offered excellent observing conditions at the best place for viewing and helped deploy a wide range of imaging, spectroscopic and ranging techniques to study the meteor shower. The NSF/NCAR "Electra" aircraft carried a two-beam iron lidar of the University of Illinois amongst five other experiments. The USAF/452nd FTS "FISTA" aircraft carried mid- and near-infrared spectrographs of the Aerospace Corporation and the Air Force Research Laboratory, in addition to seven other experiments. There were no unsolved technical problems and the mission proceeded as planned. What is arguably the best shower since the storm of 1966 was observed in close detail. In addition, some of the ground-based efforts in China and the USA set up by some of the participating researchers were highly successful also by profiting from local clear weather conditions. Here, I will introduce the mission objectives and scope and will discuss some of the first results of the various research teams presented during the Leonid MAC Workshop at NASA/ARC in April of 1999. This workshop was the first step in our preparations for a second such campaign in November of 1999, this time to be flown from a site in Europe.
Comet Encke's Dust Trail
William T. Reach (SIRTF Science Center/IPAC/Caltech), Mark V. Sykes (Steward Observatory/U.Arizona), John K. Davies (Joint Astronomy Center)
We observed comet 2P/Encke with the Infrared Space Observatory in July 1997, when the comet made a close (0.25 AU) approach to Earth. The nucleus saturated the central pixel of our image, but the lower limit to nuclear flux yields a lower limit to nuclear radius of 1 km. Cometary dust extends over much of the image, comprising a coma, tail, and trail. The coma is asymmetric, with a surface brightness at 12 microns of 33/T MJy/sr where T is the angular separation from the nucleus in arcminutes. The tail is very broad, and it deviates significantly from the anti-solar direction, from which we infer a particle size of order 20 microns and a mass of 1e11 g. The dust TRAIL is a straight line, stretching across our image for more than 35 arcmin. The core of the trail is 2 arcmin (22,000 km) in width both ahead of and behind the comet, with a fainter, wider component, shifted from the core of the trail, appearing behind the comet. The mass of the portion of the trail in our image is more than 1e12 g, for the minimum particle size of 1 cm suggested by dynamical simulations of particles ejected from the nucleus. Scaling to the entire length of the trail, as seen in the IRAS data, the total trail mass is of order 1e14 g, or larger. The mass of the dust trail is far greater than that of the tail or coma, and the dust mass loss rate is much greater than than the gas mass loss rate, supporting the idea that comets are composed more of solid material than of gas or ice.
Discovery of a Satellite of (45) Eugenia
W. J. Merline (Southwest Research Institute [SwRI], Boulder), L. M. Close (ESO), C. Dumas (JPL), C. R. Chapman (SwRI, Boulder), F. Roddier (U. Hawaii), F. Menard (CFHT), D. C. Slater (SwRI, San Antonio), G. Duvert (Obs. Grenoble, France), C. Shelton (W. M. Keck Obs.), T. Morgan (NASA HQ)
We describe the discovery of a satellite of asteroid (45) Eugenia. The detection of the companion, provisionally designated S/1998 (45) 1, was made on 1998 November 1 UT and is based on near-infrared, direct imaging, with the adaptive optics system (PUEO) of the 3.6-m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope on Mauna Kea. The satellite was found to be about 6 magnitudes fainter than Eugenia and has an orbital period of about 4.7 days. We have tracked the moon intermittently through two contiguous orbits. It was observed in 12 observing sessions on 5 separate nights spanning 10 contiguous nights. Subsequent observations with CFHT on 1999 January 4 UT also show the satellite. Our observations indicate that the companion has a prograde orbit that is nearly circular. At the time of discovery, the projected orbit was inclined to the line-of-sight by about 45 degrees and maximum elongation was 0.8 arcsec (about 1200 km). Based on the previously-estimated size of Eugenia, our measurements yield a bulk density of this C-like asteroid of about 1.3 g/cm^3, implying that it may be a rubble-pile of high porosity, similar to that inferred for the C-type asteroid Mathilde.
Observations were made in H-band (1.65 micron) using a 1024x1024 IR detector array. At this band, PUEO consistently achieves FHWM images of 0.15 arcsec with Strehl ratio of about 0.5. The satellite was also imaged in J and K' bands. This is the first positive detection from a comprehensive program, funded by NASA and NSF, to survey up to 200 asteroids for the presence of companions. The program is carried out using the adaptive optics systems of CFHT and the Mt. Wilson 100" telescope.
Fast Rotating Asteroids
Petr Pravec (Astronomical Institute Ondrejov, Czech Republic)
Fast rotating asteroids (FRAs) have distinct properties that bring important information on processes and evolution of asteroid population. A fact that many near-Earth asteroids are FRAs brings further interest to them.
FRA is an asteroid rotating with period <4 h. This limit is due to: (i) Asteroids with P<4 h are missing among objects larger than diameter 30-50 km; the population of FRAs is significant only among smaller asteroids. (ii) There is a drop of observed asteroid lightcurve amplitudes at this period. This indicates that FRAs are less elongated, more spheroidal than asteroids with P>4h. (iii) Asteroids with P<4 h are near the rotational break-up limit for aggregates with no tensile strength ("rubble piles") with bulk densities plausible for asteroids.
Nearly all known FRAs have periods in the range 2.2-4 h. The 2.2-h cutoff is an evidence that most FRAs are rubble piles with bulk densities <2.7 g/ccm. No faster rotator was reliably known until observations of the 30-m NEA 1998 KY26 revealed its period of 0.176 h. 1998 KY26, together with another small, 100-m NEA 1995 HM with a probable period of 1.6 h, are the first known asteroids spinning so fast that they must be monoliths. 1998 KY26 and 1995 HM are also the smallest asteroids with known periods; they have H>22, while all other known FRAs (with periods 2.2-4 h) have H<22, i.e., larger than about 200m. This agrees with hydrocode computations simulating asteroid collisions that showed that asteroids larger than 200-400 m are rubble piles.
Six FRAs showed two-period lightcurves. Four of them, NEAs 1991 VH, 1994 AW1, 1996 FG3 and (3671), contain clear signs of occultation/eclipse phenomena and are interpreted as binary asteroids. The other two, 1998 PG and (5407), showed less clear but similar behavior and may be binary as well. Characteristics of the objects are consistent with formation of the binaries by tidal disruptions of rubble piles during encounters with the Earth.
FRAs are considered being mostly fragments generated in catastrophic disruptions of larger asteroids. The fraction of FRAs among a few km-sized NEAs is 35%, that is about twice as large as the fraction of FRAs among similarly sized MBAs. This suggests that there is present a mechanism increasing the fraction of FRAs among NEAs, tides during planetary encounters being a possibility. An analysis of probability of detection of binaries among NEAs as well as the statistics of binary craters suggest that roughly 17% of NEAs are binary. Since most if not all binary NEAs are FRAs, it appears that about half of near-Earth FRAs are binary.