Pinkham Notch, N.H., the starting point for many skiing and hiking trails on Mount Washington, has the best chance for a white Christmas in the Northeast – an all-but-guaranteed 96 percent.

According to senior climatologist Keith Eggleston of Cornell University's Northeast Regional Climate Center, the New Hampshire haven for year-round sports enthusiasts has the best chance for a white Christmas Day of any town in the entire Northeast region. The climate center defines a white Christmas as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. It bases its estimates on statistics gleaned from 1951 to 2000.

Located at the base of Mount Washington, Pinkham Notch is best-known as a center for hiking, skiing and snowshoeing, with many trailheads located at the Appalachian Mountain Club visitor's center and the Wildcat ski area.

"I would not doubt we're having a white Christmas this year, since we were pounded with 47 inches of snow during the [Dec. 6, 2003] Nor'easter," said Rob Burbank of the Appalachian Mountain Club. "Because we're so close to Mount Washington, we get great wintry weather."

Examining records dating back to 1948, when U.S. weather data for less-populated areas were first kept, Eggleston found that Pinkham Notch's snowiest Christmas was in 1970 when 21 inches fell, leaving a total of 50 inches on the ground. Considering the high temperature that day was 24 degrees Fahrenheit and the low was --2, the snowfall-to-melt water ratio was 22 to 1, making it a fluffy snowfall. (The ratio means that 22 inches of snow are equal to 1 inch of rain.)

Indeed, Pinkham Notch has been deprived of only one white Christmas since records were kept: in 1957. There was only a trace on the ground in 1949 and 1990. But last year the town had a foot of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. Beyond Pinkham Notch, Caribou, Maine, and Boonville, N.Y., both have a 94 percent probability of a white Christmas, says Eggleston. The snowiest Christmas Day in Boonville was in 1978 when 22 inches of a heavy snow (12 to 1 snow-to-melt water ratio) fell, bringing the local depth to 45 inches. Boonville saw a green Christmas in 1957 and 1979, and there was only a trace in 1964.

In the last 63 years of recorded weather measurements, Caribou has had a white Christmas every year but only trace amounts in 1973, 1998 and 2001.

Old Forge, N.Y., stands a 93 percent chance of seeing the fluffy stuff on the ground Dec. 25, while the chances in St. Johnsbury, Vt., are 89 percent and in Norfolk, Conn., 80 percent. Utica, N.Y., an annual contender for one of New York state's snowiest towns, has a 71 percent chance of finding snow on the ground Dec. 25, a percentage shared with Syracuse, N.Y., and Portland, Maine. Binghamton, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., share a 69 percent chance.

Buffalo, N.Y., which carries a reputation as an eastern snow mecca, has only a 58 percent chance. During Christmas week in 2001, lake-effect snows from Lake Ontario clobbered Buffalo with 82.3 inches of snow that fell from Dec. 24 through Dec. 28.

Harrisburg, Pa., and Pittsburgh share a 1-in-3 chance of seeing the white stuff, while Philadelphia has but a 12 percent chance. Baltimore and New York City both have a 14 percent chance, while the chance of a white Christmas in Washington, D.C., is 12 percent.

Probability of a White Christmas Note: this table will line up in a fixed-width font such as Courier