All eyes have been on the Middle East for the past few months as a series of sweeping protests across the region challenge authoritarian regimes and bring prospects of a democratic future. The protests have spread from one country to another as part of a "diffusion wave," said a government professor March 10 on West Campus.

But just because protests occur does not mean that a country will successfully transition to democracy, said Valerie Bunce, the Aaron Binenkorb Professor of International Studies and professor of government, speaking to more than 30 students, some with family from the Middle East, in House Dean Jefferson Cowie's Keeton House apartment.

According to Bunce, popular movements can be an infectious process. Many elements must be in place for the protests to start; but once an "early riser" has made the first move, "protests in one country can start spreading to neighboring countries, especially if there are similarities among states and earlier connections between opposition groups." Bunce called this phenomenon a "diffusion wave."

Bunce, who specializes in the Communist and post-Communist regions, noted that the protests in the Middle East are strikingly similar to the diffusion wave that eventually resulted in the collapse of the Soviet bloc. In the 1980s, Poland was the country that started the ball rolling; in the Middle East, that country was Tunisia, though the rapid spread of the Tunisian precedent to Egypt was also critical. "When very influential regimes in the region and ones seen as typical, start to protest, then you're going to see a wave. Everyone's a copycat," said Bunce.

It takes more than several powerful precedents, however, to trigger a successful movement though, said Bunce. For most countries, "a lot of things have to be in place for protests to happen." A ripened opposition, civil society organizations and succession crisis are just some of the characteristics that factor into an environment ready for transition.

However, warned Bunce, "70 percent of all authoritarian regimes that fall are followed by new authoritarian regimes." She noted that states joining the movement later on in the wave will be less likely to end with a democratic outcome.

While it is difficult to predict what will happen to such Middle Eastern countries as Saudi Arabia and Libya that are in the midst of violent struggles, Bunce said she was optimistic about the future of Egypt. The role of the Egyptian military, some history with democratic politics, an experienced labor movement, and the country's potential to form political parties place the state in a good position for democratic transition, she said. "What I have seen thus far, I feel pretty good about."

Joyce Wu '13 is a writer intern at the Cornell Chronicle.